Catalans have taken a huge risk by forcing a general election in Spain

In particular, I think voting with the neo-Francoist, corrupt Popular Party (PP) and the Blairite, anti-independence Ciudadanos (Citizens) group was a huge mistake, as it alienates left-wing opinion in Catalonia and Spain not yet won to the cause of Catalan and Basque self-determination.

Sanchez became prime minister in 2017 when the PP government, headed by colourless technocrat Mariano Rajoy, was forced from office over a massive corruption scandal. Rajoy had presided over the use of Civil Guard violence to try to smash the Catalan independence referendum in October 2017, the suspension of the elected Catalan parliament, and the mass trials of Catalan politicians for “rebellion”.

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His replacement by Sanchez and the Socialists seemed to offer the prospect of a political solution to the Catalan problem. Indeed, Sanchez lifted the suspension of Catalan institutions and opened talks with the new Catalan president, Quim Torra. However, there are limits to how much room for manoeuvre Sanchez has. One indication: in December, his Spanish Socialist Labour Party (PSOE) lost power in Andalusia for the first time in 36 years, when the regional elections voted in a rightist PP-Ciudadanos coalition. This coalition is supported by the new, openly racist, anti-gay Vox Party, a hard-line breakaway from the PP in 2013. Think Tories resigning to join the BNP.

The Andalusian regional election was fought almost entirely on the Catalan issue, with the right-wing parties ganging up on the Socialists, accusing them of destroying Spanish unity. Their victory came despite the fact Andalusia has the worst unemployment in Spain. The right-wing parties knowingly used populist, nationalist demagogy against Sanchez and the Catalans, to divert attention from Spain’s economic and social crisis. The success of this manoeuvre was aided by mass abstentions of traditional Socialist voters alienated by the PSOE’s support for austerity.

READ MORE: Andrew Tickell: Spain's trial of Catalan politicians reveals sad ghost of a mature democracy

The obvious danger is that the general election will repeat – on a national scale – the victory of the right in Andalusia, taking Spain to the edge of a political precipice. Opinion polls this month have the Socialists on circa 26%, with the left-populist Podemos (a potential ally) on 15%. That comes to 41%. Add in the Catalan and Basque parties with around 5.5% – assuming they play ball – and you nearly have a majority in the Cortes.

But the right is poised to overtake. The PP is on 21% and Ciudadanos on 17%, totalling 36%. The joker is the extremist Vox, which is at 12 points and rising. Some of this support comes from the PP but Vox is also attracting former Socialist voters. While the PP and Ciudadanos are unlikely to have Vox officially in a coalition they could do a “confidence and supply” arrangement as the Tories have done with the DUP. As the election commences, right and left in Spain are on level pegging but momentum lies with the reactionaries.

For 40 years the Francoists have retained influence but kept in the shadows. Vox has changed that. Vox is a mix of old-style Francoism and new-style, anti-immigrant populism. The party’s youthful founder, Santiago Abascal, is the grandson of a Franco loyalist. He made a point of joining French uber-nationalist Marine Le Pen during her recent anti-immigrant, anti-EU presidential campaign. Abascal has also had discussions with Steve Bannon, Trump’s former chief strategist.

On February 10, the Spanish right held a monster demo in Madrid to denounce Sanchez for “pandering” to the Catalan independence campaign and to put pressure on Spain’s none-too-independent judges to make sure the Catalan leaders now on trial are sent down for as long as possible. There are rumours that Sanchez, if he remains in power, will eventually pardon the imprisoned Catalan politicians. The Madrid demo was fanatical in denouncing such a move, thus backing Sanchez into a corner.

However, the really significant point about the February 10 demonstration was the high-profile attendance of the leaders of all three main right-wing parties: Pablo Casado of the PP, Albert Rivera of Ciudadanos, and Vox’s Abascal. Indeed, all three men appeared together for photographs – proof, if needed, that a post-election deal is being brewed. The Spanish media was suitably impressed: this is the first time since the death of Franco that so-called “mainstream” parties (the PP and Ciudadanos) have been willing to share a platform with avowed far-right figures.

Of course, a right-wing coalition is not yet cut and dried. The more middle-class Ciudadanos is somewhat embarrassed to be seen with the Vox thugs. Rivera, the Ciudadanos leader, may be gambling he can frighten Sanchez into moving to the centre during the election.

This would facilitate an eventual coalition between the PSOE and Ciudadanos. Privately, Sanchez may prefer that outcome to dealing with the far-left Podemos or the prickly Catalans. Besides, Podemos is locked in internal factional battles which has blunted its popular appeal.

Where does this leave Catalonia? It is vital the Catalans do more than talk to themselves or make impossible demands on Sanchez. The mass mobilisation of the nationalist right on February 10 is proof that mainstream Spanish politics is being driven inexorably in a reactionary direction. If there is a PP-led government on April 28 – supported by Vox – then Catalonia faces the extinction of its devolved institutions, the mass incarceration of its elected leaders, and the prospect of violent state and para-state repression if it resists.

Fortunately, we are nowhere near the political crisis that led to the outbreak of the Civil War in 1936. But Spain has entered a period of political crisis which can’t be resolved unless the far right is comprehensively defeated. The task of the moment is therefore to unite left-wing and progressive forces across Spain, Catalonia and the Basque lands to block the election of a right-wing government. To achieve this requires raising policy demands that benefit all Spaniards.

Certainly, it is vital to reform Spain’s Franco-era constitution to recognise the right of Catalonia and the Basque Lands to self-determination, and to end the show trials. But you need a progressive PSOE government to deliver those demands. Abstaining PSOE voters will only return if they know an incoming, centre-left government will end austerity, drastically reduce Spain’s 31% youth unemployment, abolish the hated, para-military Guardia Civil, and drive out financial corruption from business and politics. The Catalans must push those demands and be willing to support a PSOE-Podemos government of the left to achieve them.

Equally, the Catalans and Basques need to make overtures to the poorer parts of the Spanish state. That must include a solidarity pact in which the richer, industrialised Catalan and Basque regions are willing to aid the poorer south of Spain after independence. The future of the Iberian Peninsula is as a voluntary confederation of equal sovereign states – or it has no future at all. We’ll find out on April 28.